Near-Term Rollover Risk Calculator

The 24 months following acquisition carry the highest rollover risk. This calculator quantifies expected rent loss.

Rolling rent (0-24 mo)

Renewal probability %

SF rolling

Re-tenant per SF

Downtime months

Expected rent loss

$658,000

Non-renew rent loss

$280,000

Re-tenant cost

$378,000

How the math works

Expected loss = non-renew share × (downtime rent + re-tenant capex). Weighted by probability.

Underwrite non-renew share conservatively in year-1 pro forma. Tenants renew less than they say they will in tenant surveys. Price for 60% renewal unless data says otherwise.

How to Use

Enter near-term rolling rent.
Enter renewal probability %.
Enter re-tenant cost per SF.
Enter SF rolling.
Enter downtime months.
Read expected rent loss.

Frequently Asked Questions

Renewal probability?

75-90% in stable buildings with current tenants. 50-70% with market headwinds. 25-45% in oversupplied or obsolete product. Tenant surveys help calibrate.

Re-tenant cost?

$20-$80 PSF for commercial (all-in). Less for residential turn. Include TI, free rent, brokerage, marketing, and months of downtime.

Near-term vs full lease roll?

Focus on 0-24 months — that's what hits during acquisition underwriting and early hold. Longer-term risk is baked into reversion value.

How often should I rerun this?

Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.