Lease Roll Risk Calculator

Heavy lease roll concentration is a refinance and operating risk. This calculator sizes the exposure.

Total annual rent

Rolling 0-12 months

Rolling 12-24 months

Rolling 24-36 months

Peak-year concentration

20.0%

3-year rolling %

51.8%

Risk label

Healthy distribution

How the math works

Peak concentration = largest single rollover year ÷ total rent. 3-year % = total rolling in next 3 years.

Lenders price roll risk into spreads. A heavy cliff inside loan term can widen spread 25-75 bps. Smooth the roll through disciplined lease structuring.

How to Use

Enter total annual rent.
Enter rent rolling next 12 months.
Enter rent rolling 12-24 months.
Enter rent rolling 24-36 months.
Read roll concentration.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's healthy?

Under 15% per year. Above 25% in a single year is concentrated. Spread rollovers evenly to smooth occupancy risk and negotiation leverage.

Why matters?

Bad market + rollover cliff = forced rent cuts or vacancies. Lenders price in roll risk; 30%+ rolling in loan term forces extra cushion or tighter terms.

How to smooth?

Negotiate staggered expirations when adding tenants. Offer 3-5 year terms with different anchor dates. Never sign all tenants same month.

What documentation matters here?

Written leases, move-in/move-out inspections with photographs, ledger entries showing every payment and charge, served notices with proof of service, and contemporaneous emails or texts. Courts weigh written evidence heavily; informal understandings rarely stand. Institutional operators run a monthly file audit to catch gaps before they matter. Good paper trails recover most of what's owed.