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Rent Roll Downside Case Calculator

Downside cases model what happens if top tenants default and rollovers don't renew. This calculator sizes the downside NOI.

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Stressed NOI

$1,837,500

NOI drop

$262,500

NOI drop %

12.5%

How the math works

Stressed NOI = base − (top tenant rent × default prob) − (rollover rent × non-renew share).

Every deal should survive 20%+ NOI stress and still cover debt service. Deals that only pass under base case fail in any real market turn — re-price or pass.

How to Use

  1. Enter base case NOI.
  2. Enter top-tenant rent.
  3. Enter default probability.
  4. Enter rollover non-renew share.
  5. Enter rollover rent.
  6. Read stressed NOI.

Frequently Asked Questions

What to stress?

Top 3 tenants default (100% weight on top, 50% on 2-3). Non-renew share = 30-50%. Market rent growth halts. Expense growth continues at 3%. Compound stress.

How bad?

Stressed NOI typically 15-30% below base case. Below 25% stress clearance = over-levered. Resilient deals clear 30%+ stress with room for reserves.

Reporting?

Share base and downside with LPs quarterly. Hiding downside scenarios erodes trust when stress actually hits. Pro-active disclosure earns credibility.

What documentation matters here?

Written leases, move-in/move-out inspections with photographs, ledger entries showing every payment and charge, served notices with proof of service, and contemporaneous emails or texts. Courts weigh written evidence heavily; informal understandings rarely stand. Institutional operators run a monthly file audit to catch gaps before they matter. Good paper trails recover most of what's owed.

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