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Rent Roll Downside Case Calculator
Downside cases model what happens if top tenants default and rollovers don't renew. This calculator sizes the downside NOI.
Stressed NOI
$1,837,500
NOI drop
$262,500
NOI drop %
12.5%
How the math works
Stressed NOI = base − (top tenant rent × default prob) − (rollover rent × non-renew share).
Every deal should survive 20%+ NOI stress and still cover debt service. Deals that only pass under base case fail in any real market turn — re-price or pass.
How to Use
- Enter base case NOI.
- Enter top-tenant rent.
- Enter default probability.
- Enter rollover non-renew share.
- Enter rollover rent.
- Read stressed NOI.
Frequently Asked Questions
What to stress?
Top 3 tenants default (100% weight on top, 50% on 2-3). Non-renew share = 30-50%. Market rent growth halts. Expense growth continues at 3%. Compound stress.
How bad?
Stressed NOI typically 15-30% below base case. Below 25% stress clearance = over-levered. Resilient deals clear 30%+ stress with room for reserves.
Reporting?
Share base and downside with LPs quarterly. Hiding downside scenarios erodes trust when stress actually hits. Pro-active disclosure earns credibility.
What documentation matters here?
Written leases, move-in/move-out inspections with photographs, ledger entries showing every payment and charge, served notices with proof of service, and contemporaneous emails or texts. Courts weigh written evidence heavily; informal understandings rarely stand. Institutional operators run a monthly file audit to catch gaps before they matter. Good paper trails recover most of what's owed.
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