Finance category
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Rollover Risk Calculator
Rollover risk measures how concentrated lease expirations are in any short window — typically the next 3 years. High concentration creates re-leasing risk if the market softens, drives downtime revenue loss, and triggers fresh TI and leasing commissions. Lenders penalize concentrated rollover; institutional buyers underwrite a renewal probability and downtime assumption to size the drag.
3-year rollover %
29.17%
3-year rollover SF
35,000
Expected vacated SF
10,500
Downtime revenue loss
$147,000
How the math works
Rollover risk = the percentage of building SF that expires in the near-term (typically 3 years). High rollover concentration concentrates re-leasing risk into a single window — bad if the market softens during that window.
Lenders prefer staggered expirations under 25-30% in any 3-year window. Concentrated rollover (40%+ in 3 years) gets penalized in CMBS pricing or rejected outright.
EveryCalc calculators are designed for fast, practical estimates with transparent inputs and no required account. We use plain formulas, visible assumptions, and related tools so visitors can check the result from more than one angle.
Results are informational only. For financial, tax, legal, medical, construction, or other high-impact decisions, verify the output against primary sources or a qualified professional.
Learn more about our review process on the EveryCalc methodology page.
How this calculator works
What this page estimates
This Rollover Risk Calculator is built to give a quick, browser-based estimate for rollover risk. Rollover risk measures how concentrated lease expirations are in any short window — typically the next 3 years. High concentration creates re-leasing risk if the market softens, drives downtime revenue loss, and triggers fresh TI and leasing commissions. Lenders penalize concentrated rollover; institutional buyers underwrite a renewal probability and downtime assumption to size the drag. The inputs stay on the page during normal use, and the result should be treated as an estimate for planning, comparison, or education rather than professional advice.
Calculation approach
The calculator applies the standard relationship implied by the inputs, then formats the answer so it can be checked and reused. For finance tools, the most important step is using consistent units, rates, time periods, and assumptions before comparing the result with another calculator or outside quote.
Example workflow
For example, start with a realistic value you already know, change one input at a time, and watch how the answer moves. That makes it easier to tell whether the result is being driven by the main amount, the rate, the time period, or a unit conversion.
Practical checks
- Use current, real-world numbers when the result affects money, health, tax, or legal decisions.
- Run a low, base, and high case when the inputs are estimates.
- Check the related calculators below when the next decision depends on a different assumption.
How to interpret the rollover risk result
Best use
Use the result as a planning number for comparing payments, rates, returns, tax reserves, or cash-flow choices before you request a quote or make a commitment.
Cross-check
Compare the answer with the contract, lender estimate, tax form, brokerage statement, payroll record, or invoice that will control the real-world outcome.
Watch for
Do not rely on a single optimistic rate, return, or fee assumption. Money pages work best when you run low, base, and high cases and keep professional advice separate from the estimate.
This page belongs to the Finance calculator library, so the answer should be read in the context of the decision you are modeling rather than as a universal rule.
Before relying on this rollover risk estimate
Most calculator mistakes come from the inputs, not the arithmetic. Use this short audit before you reuse the answer in a spreadsheet, quote, application, or important conversation.
Confirm source numbers
Match balances, rates, fees, taxes, income, and payment dates against the lender quote, payroll record, tax form, statement, invoice, or contract.
Separate cash flow from total cost
A lower monthly payment can still cost more over time if fees, interest, taxes, or a longer term are hidden in the structure.
Run conservative cases
Test at least one higher-cost or lower-return case before using the output for a purchase, refinance, investment, loan, or tax decision.
Rerun this page when the rate, price, term, fee, tax rule, income, expense, or expected holding period changes.
How to Use
- Enter total building SF and the SF expiring in years 1, 2, and 3.
- Enter renewal probability (typically 60-80%) and average downtime if not renewed.
- Enter effective rent per SF.
- Read 3-year rollover percent, expected vacated SF, and the downtime revenue loss.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's healthy rollover concentration?
Under 25-30% in any 3-year window is considered healthy. Over 40% is concentrated and lenders flag it.
Renewal probability assumptions?
Class A office 70-80%, Class B 50-65%, retail 60-75%, industrial 75-85%. Use historical renewal data when you have it.
Mitigations?
Stagger expirations through partial blend-and-extend. Offer renewal incentives (free rent, TI) 12-18 months before expiration.
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