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Rollover Risk Calculator
Rollover risk measures how concentrated lease expirations are in any short window — typically the next 3 years. High concentration creates re-leasing risk if the market softens, drives downtime revenue loss, and triggers fresh TI and leasing commissions. Lenders penalize concentrated rollover; institutional buyers underwrite a renewal probability and downtime assumption to size the drag.
3-year rollover %
29.17%
3-year rollover SF
35,000
Expected vacated SF
10,500
Downtime revenue loss
$147,000
How the math works
Rollover risk = the percentage of building SF that expires in the near-term (typically 3 years). High rollover concentration concentrates re-leasing risk into a single window — bad if the market softens during that window.
Lenders prefer staggered expirations under 25-30% in any 3-year window. Concentrated rollover (40%+ in 3 years) gets penalized in CMBS pricing or rejected outright.
How to Use
- Enter total building SF and the SF expiring in years 1, 2, and 3.
- Enter renewal probability (typically 60-80%) and average downtime if not renewed.
- Enter effective rent per SF.
- Read 3-year rollover percent, expected vacated SF, and the downtime revenue loss.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's healthy rollover concentration?
Under 25-30% in any 3-year window is considered healthy. Over 40% is concentrated and lenders flag it.
Renewal probability assumptions?
Class A office 70-80%, Class B 50-65%, retail 60-75%, industrial 75-85%. Use historical renewal data when you have it.
Mitigations?
Stagger expirations through partial blend-and-extend. Offer renewal incentives (free rent, TI) 12-18 months before expiration.
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