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Rollover Risk Calculator

Rollover risk measures how concentrated lease expirations are in any short window — typically the next 3 years. High concentration creates re-leasing risk if the market softens, drives downtime revenue loss, and triggers fresh TI and leasing commissions. Lenders penalize concentrated rollover; institutional buyers underwrite a renewal probability and downtime assumption to size the drag.

%
$

3-year rollover %

29.17%

3-year rollover SF

35,000

Expected vacated SF

10,500

Downtime revenue loss

$147,000

How the math works

Rollover risk = the percentage of building SF that expires in the near-term (typically 3 years). High rollover concentration concentrates re-leasing risk into a single window — bad if the market softens during that window.

Lenders prefer staggered expirations under 25-30% in any 3-year window. Concentrated rollover (40%+ in 3 years) gets penalized in CMBS pricing or rejected outright.

How to Use

  1. Enter total building SF and the SF expiring in years 1, 2, and 3.
  2. Enter renewal probability (typically 60-80%) and average downtime if not renewed.
  3. Enter effective rent per SF.
  4. Read 3-year rollover percent, expected vacated SF, and the downtime revenue loss.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's healthy rollover concentration?

Under 25-30% in any 3-year window is considered healthy. Over 40% is concentrated and lenders flag it.

Renewal probability assumptions?

Class A office 70-80%, Class B 50-65%, retail 60-75%, industrial 75-85%. Use historical renewal data when you have it.

Mitigations?

Stagger expirations through partial blend-and-extend. Offer renewal incentives (free rent, TI) 12-18 months before expiration.

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