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Leasing Velocity Calculator
Lease-up risk dominates value-add and ground-up underwriting. The velocity at which vacant space converts to leased space — driven by submarket absorption and your competitive share — determines total carry burn and stabilization timing. This calculator integrates declining vacant SF over the lease-up period to size both the timeline and the total carrying cost.
Submarket competitive share
Months to fully lease
4 yr 3 mo
Expected absorption / mo
875
Carrying cost (mo 1)
$54,000
Total carrying cost
$1,415,700
How the math works
Leasing velocity = vacant SF ÷ expected monthly absorption. Carrying cost decays as space is leased — this calculator integrates the declining vacant SF over the lease-up period to size total interest, taxes, insurance, and management drag.
45,000 vacant SF in a market absorbing 3,500 SF/month, with you taking 25% share = 875 SF/month → 51 months to fully lease. At $1.20/SF/month, the carry adds up fast.
How to Use
- Enter vacant SF that needs to be leased.
- Enter total submarket absorption per month and your competitive share %.
- Enter monthly carrying cost per vacant SF (taxes, insurance, debt service, management).
- Read total months to lease and total carrying cost during stabilization.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where do I find absorption data?
CoStar, JLL, CBRE, Cushman quarterly market reports — they publish submarket absorption trailing 12 months at the property type level.
What's a realistic competitive share?
If your asset is 5% of submarket inventory, you might capture 10-15% of absorption (newer assets attract demand). Trophy assets capture disproportionately.
What if absorption is negative?
Negative absorption means you can't model lease-up at market velocity — you need below-market rent or aggressive concessions to win share.
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