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Lease Expiration Exposure Calculator

Single-tenant exposure on a multi-tenant property is one of the largest unpriced risks in commercial real estate. This calculator combines NOI concentration, rollover transaction cost (TI + leasing commissions + downtime), and mark-to-market rent change to size total exposure to a specific expiring lease.

Total annual NOI

Expiring tenant NOI

Rollover cost / SF (TI + LC + downtime)

Expiring SF

Market rent vs current %

Negative = mark-to-market down

Exposure as % of NOI

21.67%

Rollover cost (TI + LC)

$660,000

Mark-to-market NOI delta

-$13,000

Post-rollover tenant NOI

$247,000

NOI at risk

$13,000

How the math works

Lease expiration exposure quantifies the NOI tied to a single expiring lease. Combined with rollover transaction cost ($30-100/SF for TI + leasing commissions + downtime) and mark-to-market rent change, you get total exposure to the rollover event.

A 22% NOI exposure with $660K rollover cost on a $13M asset means roughly 5% of asset value is at risk over the rollover window.

Editorial noteMaintained by EveryCalc - Reviewed June 2026

EveryCalc calculators are designed for fast, practical estimates with transparent inputs and no required account. We use plain formulas, visible assumptions, and related tools so visitors can check the result from more than one angle.

Results are informational only. For financial, tax, legal, medical, construction, or other high-impact decisions, verify the output against primary sources or a qualified professional.

Learn more about our review process on the EveryCalc methodology page.

How this calculator works

What this page estimates

This Lease Expiration Exposure Calculator is built to give a quick, browser-based estimate for lease expiration exposure. Single-tenant exposure on a multi-tenant property is one of the largest unpriced risks in commercial real estate. This calculator combines NOI concentration, rollover transaction cost (TI + leasing commissions + downtime), and mark-to-market rent change to size total exposure to a specific expiring lease. The inputs stay on the page during normal use, and the result should be treated as an estimate for planning, comparison, or education rather than professional advice.

Calculation approach

The calculator applies the standard relationship implied by the inputs, then formats the answer so it can be checked and reused. For finance tools, the most important step is using consistent units, rates, time periods, and assumptions before comparing the result with another calculator or outside quote.

Example workflow

For example, start with a realistic value you already know, change one input at a time, and watch how the answer moves. That makes it easier to tell whether the result is being driven by the main amount, the rate, the time period, or a unit conversion.

Practical checks

Use current, real-world numbers when the result affects money, health, tax, or legal decisions.
Run a low, base, and high case when the inputs are estimates.
Check the related calculators below when the next decision depends on a different assumption.

How to interpret the lease expiration exposure result

Best use

Use the result as a planning number for comparing payments, rates, returns, tax reserves, or cash-flow choices before you request a quote or make a commitment.

Cross-check

Compare the answer with the contract, lender estimate, tax form, brokerage statement, payroll record, or invoice that will control the real-world outcome.

Watch for

Do not rely on a single optimistic rate, return, or fee assumption. Money pages work best when you run low, base, and high cases and keep professional advice separate from the estimate.

This page belongs to the Finance calculator library, so the answer should be read in the context of the decision you are modeling rather than as a universal rule.

Before relying on this lease expiration exposure estimate

Most calculator mistakes come from the inputs, not the arithmetic. Use this short audit before you reuse the answer in a spreadsheet, quote, application, or important conversation.

Confirm source numbers

Match balances, rates, fees, taxes, income, and payment dates against the lender quote, payroll record, tax form, statement, invoice, or contract.

Separate cash flow from total cost

A lower monthly payment can still cost more over time if fees, interest, taxes, or a longer term are hidden in the structure.

Run conservative cases

Test at least one higher-cost or lower-return case before using the output for a purchase, refinance, investment, loan, or tax decision.

Rerun this page when the rate, price, term, fee, tax rule, income, expense, or expected holding period changes.

How to Use

Enter total annual NOI and the expiring tenant's contribution to NOI.
Enter rollover cost per SF (TI + LC + downtime, typically $30-100).
Enter expiring SF and projected mark-to-market rent change.
Read exposure %, rollover cost, mark-to-market NOI delta, and NOI at risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's a healthy single-tenant exposure?

Under 10% of NOI is low-risk; 10-20% is moderate; over 25% is concentrated. Single-tenant net lease (STNL) deals are 100% concentrated by design.

Mark-to-market in a soft market?

If market rents have fallen 10% since lease execution, expect a -10% NOI haircut on renewal — plus any free-rent concessions to retain the tenant.

Why include downtime cost?

Even with a renewal, blend-and-extend often includes 1-3 months free rent. Without renewal, expect 6-12 months downtime for office and 3-6 for industrial.