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Lease Expiration Exposure Calculator

Single-tenant exposure on a multi-tenant property is one of the largest unpriced risks in commercial real estate. This calculator combines NOI concentration, rollover transaction cost (TI + leasing commissions + downtime), and mark-to-market rent change to size total exposure to a specific expiring lease.

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Negative = mark-to-market down

Exposure as % of NOI

21.67%

Rollover cost (TI + LC)

$660,000

Mark-to-market NOI delta

-$13,000

Post-rollover tenant NOI

$247,000

NOI at risk

$13,000

How the math works

Lease expiration exposure quantifies the NOI tied to a single expiring lease. Combined with rollover transaction cost ($30-100/SF for TI + leasing commissions + downtime) and mark-to-market rent change, you get total exposure to the rollover event.

A 22% NOI exposure with $660K rollover cost on a $13M asset means roughly 5% of asset value is at risk over the rollover window.

How to Use

  1. Enter total annual NOI and the expiring tenant's contribution to NOI.
  2. Enter rollover cost per SF (TI + LC + downtime, typically $30-100).
  3. Enter expiring SF and projected mark-to-market rent change.
  4. Read exposure %, rollover cost, mark-to-market NOI delta, and NOI at risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's a healthy single-tenant exposure?

Under 10% of NOI is low-risk; 10-20% is moderate; over 25% is concentrated. Single-tenant net lease (STNL) deals are 100% concentrated by design.

Mark-to-market in a soft market?

If market rents have fallen 10% since lease execution, expect a -10% NOI haircut on renewal — plus any free-rent concessions to retain the tenant.

Why include downtime cost?

Even with a renewal, blend-and-extend often includes 1-3 months free rent. Without renewal, expect 6-12 months downtime for office and 3-6 for industrial.

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