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Lease Expiration Exposure Calculator
Single-tenant exposure on a multi-tenant property is one of the largest unpriced risks in commercial real estate. This calculator combines NOI concentration, rollover transaction cost (TI + leasing commissions + downtime), and mark-to-market rent change to size total exposure to a specific expiring lease.
Negative = mark-to-market down
Exposure as % of NOI
21.67%
Rollover cost (TI + LC)
$660,000
Mark-to-market NOI delta
-$13,000
Post-rollover tenant NOI
$247,000
NOI at risk
$13,000
How the math works
Lease expiration exposure quantifies the NOI tied to a single expiring lease. Combined with rollover transaction cost ($30-100/SF for TI + leasing commissions + downtime) and mark-to-market rent change, you get total exposure to the rollover event.
A 22% NOI exposure with $660K rollover cost on a $13M asset means roughly 5% of asset value is at risk over the rollover window.
How to Use
- Enter total annual NOI and the expiring tenant's contribution to NOI.
- Enter rollover cost per SF (TI + LC + downtime, typically $30-100).
- Enter expiring SF and projected mark-to-market rent change.
- Read exposure %, rollover cost, mark-to-market NOI delta, and NOI at risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's a healthy single-tenant exposure?
Under 10% of NOI is low-risk; 10-20% is moderate; over 25% is concentrated. Single-tenant net lease (STNL) deals are 100% concentrated by design.
Mark-to-market in a soft market?
If market rents have fallen 10% since lease execution, expect a -10% NOI haircut on renewal — plus any free-rent concessions to retain the tenant.
Why include downtime cost?
Even with a renewal, blend-and-extend often includes 1-3 months free rent. Without renewal, expect 6-12 months downtime for office and 3-6 for industrial.
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