Renewal Probability Calculator

Renewal probability sizing helps property managers prioritize retention concessions and budget for turn cost. The four biggest signals: tenure (longer = sticker), rent vs market (below market is sticker), satisfaction, and known life events. This calculator combines them into a probability tier so retention efforts go to the highest-impact relationships.

Current tenant tenure (yrs)

Rent vs market %

Negative = below market (sticky)

Satisfaction score / 10

Known life event?

Renewal probability

90.00%

Tier

High

How the math works

Renewal probability blends tenure (longer = more sticky), rent vs market (below market is most sticky), satisfaction, and known life events. Use it to size make-ready and concession reserves on the rent roll.

Industry data: tenure 1+ yr boosts renewal +10%; rent below market by 5%+ boosts +10-15%; pending life event drops -30%.

How to Use

Enter tenant tenure (years) and current rent vs market %.
Enter satisfaction score (0-10).
Indicate whether there's a known life event.
Read renewal probability and tier.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are these estimates?

Directional only — actual renewal rate depends on operator skill, local market, and individual relationship. Use as a screening tool, not a forecast.

What lifts renewal most?

Below-market rent (-5% or more) is most sticky. Long tenure (3+ years) signals stability. Satisfaction matters but is hard to measure consistently.

How to use this?

Tag every lease as High/Medium/Low renewal probability. Spend retention budget on Medium (movable) tenants; let Low tenants exit; minimal effort on High (already sticky).