Lease Expiration Management Calculator

Spread lease expirations to avoid seasonal concentration risk in turnover.

Total units

Target expirations / mo

Peak month expirations

Off-season months

Turnover cost / unit

Concentration risk cost

$30,000

Peak month %

0.17%

Peak vs target variance

How the math works

Peak concentration = peak × 12 / total / 12. Risk cost = excess × cost × stress %.

50 / 300 = 16.7% peak vs 8.3% target. 25 excess × $4,000 × 30% = $30,000 risk cost.

How to Use

Enter total units.
Enter target spread (units per month).
Enter peak concentration (current max month).
Enter off-season months.
Enter turnover cost / unit.
Read concentration risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

Concentration risk?

Multifamily leasing tends to concentrate May-Sept (moving season). 40-60% of annual turns in these 5 months if unmanaged. Peak month: 15-25% of annual turns. This creates: (1) Leasing office overload, (2) Maintenance make-ready queues, (3) Concurrent vacancy losses. Ideal: flatten distribution across year. Target: no month >12-15% of annual turns.

Strategies to flatten?

(1) 13-15-17 month initial leases (stagger off peak season for renewals). (2) Winter move-in specials ($200-500 off) for leases expiring Dec-Feb. (3) Renewal offerings varied (11-month for summer expirers, 13-month for winter). (4) Active renewal management 60-90 days out. (5) Walk-in concession varied by month (strongest in off-season). Multi-year program: 30-50% smoother distribution.

Student housing exception?

Student housing concentrates lease expirations by academic year: 80-95% June-August. Purpose-built student housing operators accept and manage through: staged move-outs (mid-week turns), pre-schedule cleaning crews, carpet/paint contractors on rolling schedule. Make-ready duration: 3-7 days typical, can't sprawl across summer. Peak weeks: 20-30% of annual turnover compressed into 2-4 weeks.

Commercial leases?

Office rollover: track rollover in 12-36 month windows. 'Rollover cliff' concentration years: material risk to NOI. Lenders scrutinize rollover schedule in underwriting. Target: <20% rollover in any single year. Mitigation: stagger renewals, negotiate longer leases, pre-negotiate renewal before expiration. Major tenants (>25% of rent): renew 12-24 months early for stability.