Vacancy Recovery Curve Calculator

Recovery takes months — calculate revenue ramp.

Units

Post-event vacancy %

Target occupancy %

Monthly lease-up velocity (units)

Avg monthly rent

Months to target occupancy

7.9

Revenue during ramp

$2,291,250

Vacant units to fill

154

How the math works

Units to lease = vacancy × units − target vacant. Months = units to lease / velocity. Revenue ramps monthly.

220 × 70% = 154 vacant. Target 11 vacant = need 143 leases. At 18/mo = ~8 months. Revenue during ramp ~$2.7M.

How to Use

Enter units.
Enter post-event vacancy %.
Enter target occupancy %.
Enter monthly lease-up velocity.
Enter avg rent.
Read months to target and revenue during recovery.

Frequently Asked Questions

Typical ramp?

Post-disaster residential: 10-20 units/month lease-up for 150-unit property. Office post-tenant exit: 2-5% of GLA absorbed monthly. Retail: varies by center type, 2-6 months typical to backfill small shops, 12-24 for anchor replacement.

Pricing strategy?

Aggressive pricing (below market) accelerates absorption but depresses long-term rents. Market pricing: slower absorption, stable rents. Premium pricing: selective tenants, slowest. Typical distressed-property ramp uses 5-10% discount for first 6 months then steps to market.

Management implications?

Increased staffing: leasing agents, marketing, signage. Model property exploration costs. Increased concessions (2-4 weeks free for rapid signing). Commission structures tied to net-new leases. Re-tenanting budget 2-4x normal during recovery.

How does this affect my portfolio-level metrics?

Single-asset impact rarely matters in isolation for a portfolio of 20+ assets, but systematic patterns do. If the same issue shows up across 10% of your portfolio, the aggregate impact is meaningful. Track this metric at the portfolio level quarterly. Institutional operators aggregate these monthly into a KPI dashboard for investors and lenders.