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Subdivision Phasing NPV Calculator
Subdivisions phase delivery. This calculator models.
Phased NPV
$4,593,686
Phase count
3
Total undiscounted profit
$5,200,000
How the math works
Each phase's profit discounted by timing. Sum discounted profits for NPV.
80 units, 30 per phase, 18-month interval, $65k/unit profit at 10% discount: 3 phases. NPV ~$4.6M vs $5.2M undiscounted. Time value of money vs market risk tradeoff.
How to Use
- Enter total units.
- Enter phase 1 units.
- Enter phase interval months.
- Enter unit profit.
- Enter discount rate %.
- Read NPV of phased delivery.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why phase?
Reduces risk (don't bet full portfolio). Preserves pricing power (limited supply per phase). Capital efficiency (deploy incrementally). Matches absorption. Allows learning from phase 1 to improve phases 2+. Rarely do developers deliver 100% at once.
Tradeoffs?
Extended timeline = interest carry. Site logistics overlap. Market cycle risk (phase 3 in recession). Fixed costs (sales office, model homes) spread over longer period. Match phase size to 12-24 month absorption window.
Absorption?
30-home phase absorbs 12-18 months typically. 100-home: 24-36 months. Too-large phases: pricing pressure; cancellations; fall-off. Too-small: fixed cost drag. Find sweet spot from market analysis.
How often should I rerun this?
Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.
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