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Land Banking Carry Calculator
Land held for future development carries cost. This calculator sums multi-year carry.
Cumulative carry
$1,126,643
Appreciated value
$5,252,556
Breakeven appreciation %
4.50%
How the math works
Cumulative carry accumulates on a growing asset base. Value appreciates at annual rate for hold years.
A typical 6-year land bank with 4.5% carry and 7% appreciation just barely outruns the carry — a reasonable return on paper, but most land banking plays crumble when appreciation slows. Build in a 2-3 point margin above breakeven before holding, or acknowledge the play is speculative.
How to Use
- Enter land cost.
- Enter annual carry rate %.
- Enter hold years.
- Enter annual appreciation %.
- Read cumulative carry and breakeven appreciation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why land bank?
Anticipate future demand at current prices. Lock in path-of-growth locations. Secure sites for future phases of master-planned development. Each requires patient capital and appreciation outpacing carry.
Typical appreciation?
Path of growth land: 5-12% annual (hot markets). Urban infill: 3-8%. Rural: 2-5%. Must outpace carry + cost of capital. If carry is 4% and appreciation is 3%, land bank is losing ground even before considering opportunity cost.
Breakeven?
Breakeven appreciation = annual carry + required return. 3% carry + 10% required = 13% annual appreciation needed. Most land bank plays miss this hurdle and rely on exit multiple or market timing.
How often should I rerun this?
Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.
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