Absorption Curve Velocity Calculator

Absorption drives lease-up. This calculator tracks.

Total units

Monthly absorption target

Actual monthly absorption

Months into lease-up

Units behind plan

Revised lease-up months

Velocity variance %

-26.67%

How the math works

Units behind = expected − actual. Remaining / actual = months to complete.

200 units, 15 target, 11 actual, 8 months in: 32 units behind. 112 remaining / 11 = 10.2 more months. Total 18-month lease-up vs 14-month plan. Adjust concession strategy or pricing.

How to Use

Enter total units.
Enter monthly absorption target.
Enter actual monthly absorption.
Enter months into lease-up.
Read absorption gap and variance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Typical velocity?

Class A urban: 15-30 leases/month (200-unit building). Class A suburban: 10-20. Class B: 8-15. Class C/value-add: 5-10. Velocity slows in later stages (last 20% of units take longer). First 30% fastest; tail hardest.

Concessions?

Each month below target: concession uptick pressure. 1 month free for every 4 below plan (e.g., 4 months off 16 target → 1 month concession). Concessions ramp until velocity returns. Lender covenant triggers if absorption lag too severe.

Benchmark?

3-year lease-up: steady 8-15/mo. 18-month: 20+/mo for 200-unit. Seasonal slowdown: 30-40% velocity drop in Nov-Feb typical. Factor seasonal pattern into pro forma — don't straight-line absorption across year.

What does competitive benchmarking look like?

Pull 3-5 comparable properties or units in your submarket from CoStar, Yardi, CIM, or your local broker. Normalize by unit type, class, and age. Your outputs should fall within one standard deviation of the comp-set mean. Outliers are either opportunities or warning signs — dig into why. Monthly benchmarking keeps your portfolio on-market and pricing sharp.