Owner Contingency Burn Calculator

Contingency burns through projects. This calculator tracks.

Initial contingency

% project complete

Contingency used to date

Forecast CO remaining

Projected ending balance

-$90,000

Burn rate (% contingency per 10% complete)

11.12%

Exposure above contingency

$90,000

How the math works

Ending = initial − used − forecast. Burn rate = (used / initial) / (% complete / 10%).

On $850k initial, $520k used at 55% complete with $420k forecast: −$90k ending = over-burn. Burn rate ~2.0 (faster than pro rata). Owner needs to tighten change order approval, VE remaining scope, or request budget increase.

How to Use

Enter initial contingency $.
Enter % project complete.
Enter contingency used to date.
Enter change order forecast remaining.
Read projected ending balance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Healthy burn?

Pro-rata with % complete: healthy. Front-loaded (50% used at 30% complete): warning — design issues showing up. Back-loaded (20% used at 70% complete): warning — punch list/change orders coming. Aim for linear burn.

Typical size?

Ground-up: 5-10% of hard cost. Renovation: 10-15% (more unknowns). Historic renovation: 15-25%. Design-build: lower (contractor absorbs some). Cost-plus GMP: higher. Adjust for project type and complexity.

Protecting contingency?

Rigorous change order process (owner approval, detailed scope). VE (value engineering) when contingency burning fast. Early communication of issues. Don't tap for scope upgrades — separate owner budget. Reserve 15-20% of contingency for punchlist/close-out.

How often should I rerun this?

Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.