Roll to Market Calculator

Under-market leases roll upward at expiration. This calculator models NOI uplift.

In-place rent PSF

Market rent PSF

Leased SF

Capture probability %

Annual NOI uplift

$216,000

Gross (100% capture)

$270,000

Rent gap %

21.43%

How the math works

Uplift = (market − in-place) × SF × capture probability.

Staged rollout protects NOI: stagger expiration dates so no single year carries 50%+ of roll risk. Buyers underwrite roll at 70-85% capture; conservative sponsors use 60-70% for sensitivity modeling.

How to Use

Enter current in-place rent.
Enter market rent.
Enter leased square feet.
Enter probability of renewal at market.
Read uplift over 12 months.

Frequently Asked Questions

When to roll?

At lease expiration. Some leases have rollover clauses triggered by market movements or CPI, allowing earlier renegotiation. Read lease carefully for escalation and reset provisions.

Probability discount?

Not all under-market rolls capture 100% of the gap. Tenant negotiation, lease concessions, market softening at expiration, or renewal at sub-market deals reduce realized uplift. Budget 70-85% capture.

Expense offset?

Rising rents often come with higher expense recoveries. Net gain = gross uplift − recovery adjustment. Usually small (few percent of rent) but material in tight markets.

How often should I rerun this?

Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.