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Lease Renewal Probability Calculator
Renewal assumption drives cash flow projections. This calculator estimates probability from tenancy and market signals.
Renewal probability %
82.0%
Classification
Very likely
Expected renewal value
Underwrite at renewal
How the math works
Probability = f(tenure, rent vs market, business health, alternatives). Higher = more confident renewal.
Conversations with tenant in last 6 months outweigh scorecard math. Ask about growth plans, expansion needs, local presence. Scorecard is the starting point; tenant conversation is the fact-check.
How to Use
- Enter years tenured.
- Enter rent vs market %.
- Rate business health (1-5).
- Rate market alternatives (1-5).
- Read renewal probability.
Frequently Asked Questions
Baseline renewal rates?
Multifamily 55-65%. Office 65-75%. Industrial 80-90%. Retail 70-85%. Triple-net 85-95%. Use as starting point and adjust for specific tenant factors.
Tenure effect?
Long-tenured tenants (5+ years) renew at 80%+. New tenants (first term) renew at 45-60%. Renewal improves with build-out invested, on-site infrastructure, or community embedded.
Rent vs market?
Under-market tenants renew at 85-95% (tough for them to find equal deal). Over-market renew at 40-55%. Market-rate renewal probability sits in 65-75% zone.
What documentation matters here?
Written leases, move-in/move-out inspections with photographs, ledger entries showing every payment and charge, served notices with proof of service, and contemporaneous emails or texts. Courts weigh written evidence heavily; informal understandings rarely stand. Institutional operators run a monthly file audit to catch gaps before they matter. Good paper trails recover most of what's owed.
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