Lease Rollover Stress Calculator

Rollover years stress NOI. This calculator tests.

Total portfolio rent

Rollover year rent at risk %

Retention probability %

New rent vs in-place %

Stressed rent (year-end)

$11,905,920

At-risk rent

$3,360,000

Expected rent loss

$94,080

How the math works

Stressed = non-rollover rent + retained rent + new rent (at discount).

28% rolling with 65% retention and 92% new rent: stressed = $8.64M + $2.18M + $0.87M = $11.69M, down 2.6% vs $12M. Bake into stress pro forma; lender wants to see adequate DSCR even in stressed rollover year.

How to Use

Enter total portfolio rent.
Enter rollover year rent at risk %.
Enter retention probability %.
Enter new rent vs in-place %.
Read stressed rent.

Frequently Asked Questions

Rollover pattern?

Office: lease terms 3-10 years, roll spread across cycle. Concentrated years (30%+ rolling): significant exposure. Industrial: longer terms, rollover smoother. Retail: staggered historically; shifting. Analyze 5-year rollover schedule.

Retention math?

Weighted by rent: retained tenants × retention rent + new tenants × new rent − vacancy period. Factor TI and free rent on both. Fair comp: apples-to-apples net effective rent.

Downside?

Rollover in weak market: retention rate drops (60% vs 80%). Renewal rents flat or down. TI elevated. Vacancy extended. Double-digit NOI swing possible on 30%+ rollover year in correction. Insti: stress-test these years.

What documentation matters here?

Written leases, move-in/move-out inspections with photographs, ledger entries showing every payment and charge, served notices with proof of service, and contemporaneous emails or texts. Courts weigh written evidence heavily; informal understandings rarely stand. Institutional operators run a monthly file audit to catch gaps before they matter. Good paper trails recover most of what's owed.