Portfolio Lease Rollover Calculator

Rollover concentration drives portfolio risk. This calculator models yearly exposure.

Annual rent roll

Year 1 rollover %

Year 2 rollover %

Year 3 rollover %

Non-renew %

Year 1 NOI at risk

$369,600

Year 2 NOI at risk

$470,400

3-year cumulative

$1,142,400

How the math works

Annual at-risk = rent × rollover % × non-renewal %. Cumulative = 3 years compounded.

Spread lease expiries by offering tenants 6-18 month extensions at slight below-market. Fixing a cluster year after it's already stacked is 3x harder than preventing it — a small annual program keeps the ladder smooth at roughly the cost of one avoided bad-year vacancy.

How to Use

Enter total annual rent roll.
Enter Year 1 rollover %.
Enter Year 2 rollover %.
Enter Year 3 rollover %.
Enter worst-case non-renewal %.
Read Year 1-3 NOI at risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

Healthy distribution?

15-25% rollover per year spreads risk. 35%+ in any one year is concentration risk. Developers and value-add operators sometimes intentionally ladder expiries into stabilization year for mark-to-market upside — but concentration amplifies bad markets too.

Non-renewal assumptions?

Residential: 40-55% non-renew (base). Commercial retail: 20-30% non-renew. Office: 30-45%. Industrial: 20-35%. Stress cases should double the base for down markets.

Lender covenants?

Many CMBS and life co. loans cap single-year rollover at 30% or trigger cash sweep. Portfolio loans add similar guardrails. Know thresholds before signing — agree in advance rather than discovering at covenant trip.

What documentation matters here?

Written leases, move-in/move-out inspections with photographs, ledger entries showing every payment and charge, served notices with proof of service, and contemporaneous emails or texts. Courts weigh written evidence heavily; informal understandings rarely stand. Institutional operators run a monthly file audit to catch gaps before they matter. Good paper trails recover most of what's owed.