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Lease Probability Weighted Rent Calculator
Not every LOI closes. This calculator probability-weights pipeline rent to size risk-adjusted NOI.
Probability-weighted rent
$530,000
Gross pipeline rent
$950,000
Signed share
31.6%
How the math works
Weighted rent = signed + LOI × prob + prospect × prob. Assembles risk-adjusted NOI ramp.
Underwrite to weighted rent, not gross pipeline. Reality almost always lines up with weighted output, not optimistic gross figures. Calibrate probabilities from prior 12 months of conversions.
How to Use
- Enter signed rent.
- Enter LOI rent and probability.
- Enter prospect rent and probability.
- Read weighted rent.
Frequently Asked Questions
Typical probabilities?
Signed: 95%+. LOI: 50-70%. Warm prospect: 15-30%. Cold prospect: under 10%. Discipline in categorizing prevents overstatement of leased NOI.
Why weight?
Lenders and buyers credit signed heavily, LOI modestly, prospect barely. Overstate pipeline and your model looks good but breaks when LOIs fall out.
Update cadence?
Weekly during lease-up. Track conversion rate (LOI → signed) over 90 days. Calibrate probabilities from your own history, not industry averages.
What documentation matters here?
Written leases, move-in/move-out inspections with photographs, ledger entries showing every payment and charge, served notices with proof of service, and contemporaneous emails or texts. Courts weigh written evidence heavily; informal understandings rarely stand. Institutional operators run a monthly file audit to catch gaps before they matter. Good paper trails recover most of what's owed.
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