GMP Contingency Burn Calculator

GMP contingency burns at rate. This calculator tracks pace.

Original contingency

Contingency spent

Percent complete

Projected total use

Contingency remaining

$850,000

Burn pace (%/%)

1.08

Projected shortfall

How the math works

Burn pace = (spent % of contingency) ÷ (% complete). Ratio > 1 = burning faster than progress.

Burn pace above 1.25 by the 40% complete mark is a red flag. Review contingency categories, reset expectations, and consider adding contingency or owner-fund increase. Projects that let contingency run above 1.5x pace until 70% complete almost always overrun.

How to Use

Enter original contingency.
Enter contingency spent.
Enter percent complete.
Enter projected total contingency use.
Read remaining and pace analysis.

Frequently Asked Questions

Healthy burn pace?

Contingency should burn slower than % complete. 50% complete should use < 50% contingency. If matching or faster: warning sign. Reserve contingency for unknown-unknowns, not known-unknowns (those should be in budget).

When to reserve more?

Discovered conditions (Phase II surprises, rock excavation). Escalation above forecast. Design changes. Subcontractor default. Each consumes contingency quickly. Add contingency at 20%/50%/75% completion reviews.

Owner vs GC contingency?

GC contingency: covers contractor-controllable items (construction errors, weather days built in). Owner contingency: covers owner changes, extras. Keep separate — blending hides pace issues until too late.

How often should I rerun this?

Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.