Small Shop Rollover Risk Calculator

Bunched expirations amplify risk. This calculator sizes.

Rollover SF (cluster)

Avg rent PSF

Avg TI PSF new tenant

Renewal probability %

Downtime months if non-renewed

Expected rollover exposure

$941,500

Expected non-renewed SF

10,500

TI cost if non-renewed

$577,500

How the math works

Non-renewed SF = SF × (1 − renewal prob). Exposure = TI + rent × downtime/12 + LC (~half year rent).

30k SF × 35% = 10,500 SF non-renewed. $55 TI = $578k. $32 × 7/12 = $19/SF × 10.5k = $196k downtime. $168k LC. Total ~$942k exposure.

How to Use

Enter total SF of expiring leases.
Enter avg rent PSF.
Enter TI PSF.
Enter renewal probability %.
Enter downtime months.
Read rollover exposure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Rollover risk?

When many leases roll in the same 12-24 month window, the re-tenanting workload concentrates, leasing agents can't cover, downtime lengthens, and market absorption may not match supply. Especially risky if original signing was also clustered.

Avoiding clusters?

Stagger expiration dates when signing new leases. Offer 5/7/10/12 year options to spread. Target <20% of GLA expiring in any 18-month window. Existing clusters: negotiate early renewals, phased expirations, or market test rollovers.

Sizing exposure?

Non-renewal probability (20-35% typical) × (SF × TI PSF + SF × rent × downtime/12 + leasing commission). On 30,000 SF expiring, 30% non-renewal, $50 TI, 8 months downtime: $2-3M exposure. Lenders stress this for DSCR sizing.