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Small Shop Rollover Risk Calculator
Bunched expirations amplify risk. This calculator sizes.
Expected rollover exposure
$941,500
Expected non-renewed SF
10,500
TI cost if non-renewed
$577,500
How the math works
Non-renewed SF = SF × (1 − renewal prob). Exposure = TI + rent × downtime/12 + LC (~half year rent).
30k SF × 35% = 10,500 SF non-renewed. $55 TI = $578k. $32 × 7/12 = $19/SF × 10.5k = $196k downtime. $168k LC. Total ~$942k exposure.
EveryCalc calculators are designed for fast, practical estimates with transparent inputs and no required account. We use plain formulas, visible assumptions, and related tools so visitors can check the result from more than one angle.
Results are informational only. For financial, tax, legal, medical, construction, or other high-impact decisions, verify the output against primary sources or a qualified professional.
Learn more about our review process on the EveryCalc methodology page.
How this calculator works
What this page estimates
This Small Shop Rollover Risk Calculator is built to give a quick, browser-based estimate for small shop rollover risk. Bunched expirations amplify risk. This calculator sizes. The inputs stay on the page during normal use, and the result should be treated as an estimate for planning, comparison, or education rather than professional advice.
Calculation approach
The calculator applies the standard relationship implied by the inputs, then formats the answer so it can be checked and reused. For finance tools, the most important step is using consistent units, rates, time periods, and assumptions before comparing the result with another calculator or outside quote.
Example workflow
For example, start with a realistic value you already know, change one input at a time, and watch how the answer moves. That makes it easier to tell whether the result is being driven by the main amount, the rate, the time period, or a unit conversion.
Practical checks
- Use current, real-world numbers when the result affects money, health, tax, or legal decisions.
- Run a low, base, and high case when the inputs are estimates.
- Check the related calculators below when the next decision depends on a different assumption.
How to interpret the small shop rollover risk result
Best use
Use the result as a planning number for comparing payments, rates, returns, tax reserves, or cash-flow choices before you request a quote or make a commitment.
Cross-check
Compare the answer with the contract, lender estimate, tax form, brokerage statement, payroll record, or invoice that will control the real-world outcome.
Watch for
Do not rely on a single optimistic rate, return, or fee assumption. Money pages work best when you run low, base, and high cases and keep professional advice separate from the estimate.
This page belongs to the Finance calculator library, so the answer should be read in the context of the decision you are modeling rather than as a universal rule.
Before relying on this small shop rollover risk estimate
Most calculator mistakes come from the inputs, not the arithmetic. Use this short audit before you reuse the answer in a spreadsheet, quote, application, or important conversation.
Confirm source numbers
Match balances, rates, fees, taxes, income, and payment dates against the lender quote, payroll record, tax form, statement, invoice, or contract.
Separate cash flow from total cost
A lower monthly payment can still cost more over time if fees, interest, taxes, or a longer term are hidden in the structure.
Run conservative cases
Test at least one higher-cost or lower-return case before using the output for a purchase, refinance, investment, loan, or tax decision.
Rerun this page when the rate, price, term, fee, tax rule, income, expense, or expected holding period changes.
How to Use
- Enter total SF of expiring leases.
- Enter avg rent PSF.
- Enter TI PSF.
- Enter renewal probability %.
- Enter downtime months.
- Read rollover exposure.
Frequently Asked Questions
Rollover risk?
When many leases roll in the same 12-24 month window, the re-tenanting workload concentrates, leasing agents can't cover, downtime lengthens, and market absorption may not match supply. Especially risky if original signing was also clustered.
Avoiding clusters?
Stagger expiration dates when signing new leases. Offer 5/7/10/12 year options to spread. Target <20% of GLA expiring in any 18-month window. Existing clusters: negotiate early renewals, phased expirations, or market test rollovers.
Sizing exposure?
Non-renewal probability (20-35% typical) × (SF × TI PSF + SF × rent × downtime/12 + leasing commission). On 30,000 SF expiring, 30% non-renewal, $50 TI, 8 months downtime: $2-3M exposure. Lenders stress this for DSCR sizing.
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