Senior Living Absorption Calculator

Senior living absorption is notoriously slow and risk-heavy.

Unit count

Monthly inquiries

Lead-to-move-in %

Move-in velocity (months)

Annual churn %

Months to stabilize

28.6

Monthly move-ins

Annual churn units

How the math works

Monthly move-ins = inquiries × conversion. Net monthly = move-ins − (units × churn/12).

45 × 20% = 9 gross − (150 × 30%/12) = 9 − 3.75 = 5.25 net. 150 / 5.25 = 28.6 months stabilize.

How to Use

Enter unit count.
Enter monthly inquiries.
Enter lead-to-move-in conversion %.
Enter move-in velocity months.
Enter churn rate % / yr.
Read absorption timeline.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is senior absorption slow?

Unlike apartments (2-4 week decision cycle), senior living is 6-18 month decision. Family involvement (adult children often primary decision-maker, complex family dynamics). Asset sale (home sale funds entrance fee). Emotional (leaving longtime residence). Care transition (from home to independent living to assisted to memory care — each step separately). Typical lease-up: 18-36 months for 120-unit community vs 6-12 months for apartment.

Typical absorption rates?

Class A active-adult: 8-15 move-ins per month. Class A independent living: 5-10 per month. Assisted living: 3-8 per month. Memory care: 2-5 per month. CCRC (Continuing Care Retirement Community): 5-15 per month across care levels. Seasonal: Q3-Q4 stronger (post-summer planning). Tertiary markets: 50-75% of primary market absorption. Always pad absorption in underwriting with sensitivity.

Drivers of absorption?

Marketing: digital lead gen (seniors on Facebook/Instagram + adult children on Google), community events, broker referrals, medical referrals. Sales team: skilled consultants reduce lead-to-move-in conversion time. Pricing: entrance fee flexibility, monthly fee structure. Product: modern amenities, health care continuity. Reputation: word of mouth. Institutional brands (Brookdale, Holiday, Atria) lease up 20-40% faster than unknown.

Churn and backfill?

Senior living churn: typically 25-40% annually (includes deaths, care-level transitions, family moves). Need continuous backfill — essentially re-leasing the entire community every 3-4 years. Marketing and sales budget remains high post-stabilization. Care transitions often stay in CCRC (continues revenue), but single-product operators lose customers at care needs change. Model carefully.