NOI Yield Stabilization Curve Calculator

NOI ramps over lease-up. This calculator models.

Stabilized NOI

Current month

Months to stabilize

Starting NOI (mo 1, annualized)

Projected month NOI (annualized)

$1,025,381

Progress % of ramp

44.44%

Ramp remaining

$1,374,619

How the math works

Progress = current / total months. Projected NOI = start + ramp × progress^0.8 (S-curve).

Month 8 of 18 = 44% progress. Starting -$480k, stabilized $2.4M. Projected: $1.0M. $1.4M ramp remaining in next 10 months. S-curve accelerates then plateaus.

How to Use

Enter stabilized NOI.
Enter month current.
Enter months to stabilize.
Enter starting NOI (mo 1).
Read projected month NOI.

Frequently Asked Questions

Ramp pattern?

Month 1-6: rapid lease-up, revenue growing faster than expenses (approaching break-even). Month 6-18: operations normalize. Month 18-24: stabilization (occupancy >90%, concessions burn off). NOI reaches stabilized level. Curve S-shaped, not linear.

Expense ramp?

Expenses start near full (operational). Revenue starts low. Ramp period loss-making. Breakeven month 6-12 typical. After breakeven, NOI ramps steeply to stabilized. Hot markets: faster ramp. Soft markets: slower.

Model?

Pro forma: month-by-month revenue × occupancy ramp × (1 - concession burn) − expenses (mostly fixed). Track actual vs plan monthly. Material variance: adjust operations, concessions, or pricing.

What's the biggest mistake operators make here?

Treating the metric in isolation. Real estate decisions require looking at cap, cash flow, leverage, tenant health, and market simultaneously. A single number like cap rate or coverage ratio looks fine on its own but misleads without context. Always pair this output with two or three other metrics before deciding. Top operators build dashboards, not spreadsheets.