Cohort Retention Curve Calculator

Cohorts retain differently. This calculator maps retention.

Cohort size (year 0)

Year 1 retention %

Year 2 retention %

Year 3 retention %

Year 5 remaining tenants

Cumulative 3-year retention %

26.81%

Year 5 % of original

15.08%

How the math works

Each year's survivors = prior × retention rate. Compound across periods.

Starting 240 tenants, 55%/65%/75% year 1/2/3 retention, and 75% thereafter: ~38 remaining at year 5 (16%). Typical multifamily cohort loses 80%+ of initial tenants over 5 years. Retention economics compound: small bumps in year-1 retention produce large year-3-5 gains.

How to Use

Enter cohort size (year 0 tenants).
Enter year 1 retention %.
Enter year 2 retention %.
Enter year 3 retention %.
Read cumulative retention at year 5.

Frequently Asked Questions

Typical retention?

Multifamily year-1: 45-60%. Year-2: 30-45%. Year-3: 20-35%. Year-5: 10-20%. Office: much higher (60% Y1, 40% Y3, 25% Y5). Industrial: highest (75% Y1, 55% Y3, 40% Y5). Retail: lower (40% Y1, 20% Y3).

Why track?

Predicts turnover cost, lease-up capex, and capture rates. Portfolio KPI. Vintage comparison: lower-retaining cohorts suggest market shift or concession overload. Investment thesis validation.

Improve?

Proactive renewal: reach out 90-120 days before expiration. Competitive retention rents. Service response time. Amenity investment. Turn quality. Each lifts retention 2-5 pts. Cumulative: material difference over time.

How often should I rerun this?

Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.