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Top Tenant Value At Risk Calculator
Top tenant concentration is risk. This calculator quantifies.
Value at risk
$1,200,000
Concentration %
37.50%
Total implied value
$40,000,000
How the math works
Concentration % = top tenant / total NOI. VaR = (top NOI / cap rate) × default probability.
37.5% concentration on $2.8M NOI at 7% cap = $40M total value, $1.2M top tenant. 8% default probability = $1.2M VaR. Top tenant loss = 37% NOI reduction, ~37% value reduction. Material — credit analysis and lease enhancement matter heavily.
How to Use
- Enter total NOI.
- Enter top tenant NOI contribution.
- Enter cap rate.
- Enter probability of default %.
- Read value-at-risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Concentration limits?
Institutional: no tenant >15% of rent. REIT REG: top-1 tenant typically <25%. Regional portfolio: <40% top-1 acceptable but commands concentration discount. Single-tenant: inherent 100% concentration, price accordingly.
Valuation impact?
Each 10% concentration above 15% = 25-50 bps cap rate widening in valuation. 40% concentration = 75-150 bps premium above portfolio-comp cap rate. Stabilized multi-tenant: small premium. Single-tenant credit: no premium if credit strong.
Mitigation?
Long-term lease (locks in). Strong credit (investment grade). Guaranty enhancement. Multiple locations from same tenant (diversified operationally). Step-down covenants. Landlord's credit analysis at acquisition, then monitored annually.
What documentation matters here?
Written leases, move-in/move-out inspections with photographs, ledger entries showing every payment and charge, served notices with proof of service, and contemporaneous emails or texts. Courts weigh written evidence heavily; informal understandings rarely stand. Institutional operators run a monthly file audit to catch gaps before they matter. Good paper trails recover most of what's owed.
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