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Seasonal Occupancy Calculator
Multifamily leasing is highly seasonal. Summer peak; winter trough. This calculator projects season-adjusted occupancy from annual averages.
Winter occupancy
89.00%
Summer occupancy
96.00%
Summer − winter range (bps)
700
How the math works
Summer = annual + lift; winter = annual − drop. College markets and cold-climate markets have bigger swings.
Stress-test DSCR at winter occupancy. If deal breaks at winter, it's not stable — it just averages to acceptable. Institutional underwriters insist on this stress.
How to Use
- Enter target annual occupancy.
- Enter summer lift (%).
- Enter winter drop (%).
- Read projected monthly occupancy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Typical pattern?
Most markets: Jan-Feb lowest (85-90%). June-Aug peak (94-97%). Oct-Dec moderate. College markets amplify: August spike, April drop. Year-round markets (phoenix, LA) flatter.
Why this matters?
Pro forma at 93% annual average might be 97% summer, 89% winter. Stress test at winter level. If winter occupancy breaks DSCR, deal is too tight.
How to boost winter?
Winter concessions (1 month free or $500 move-in credit). Extended lease options. Corporate/traveler outreach. Avoid January-February lease expirations in your portfolio.
What does competitive benchmarking look like?
Pull 3-5 comparable properties or units in your submarket from CoStar, Yardi, CIM, or your local broker. Normalize by unit type, class, and age. Your outputs should fall within one standard deviation of the comp-set mean. Outliers are either opportunities or warning signs — dig into why. Monthly benchmarking keeps your portfolio on-market and pricing sharp.
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