Rent Growth Sensitivity Calculator

Every underwriting assumes a rent-growth curve. But rents can flatten, even drop. This calculator shows NOI and exit value under low / base / high growth so you see the downside.

Year-1 gross rent

Bull case growth

Base case growth

Bear case growth

Hold years

Operating expense ratio

Exit cap rate

Base exit value

$11,940,523

Bull exit value

$13,400,956

Bear exit value

$10,615,202

Base exit NOI

$716,431

Bull − bear spread

$2,785,755

How the math works

Three-scenario rent growth: bull (market hot), base (long-term average), bear (flat or recessionary). The spread between bull and bear is your exposure to rent-growth risk.

If your equity can survive the bear case with positive returns, you're underwriting conservatively. If bear case returns are negative, you're betting on rent growth — charge accordingly.

How to Use

Enter year-1 gross rent.
Enter bull, base, bear annual growth rates.
Enter hold years, expense ratio, and exit cap.
Compare scenarios.

Frequently Asked Questions

What rent-growth assumption is reasonable?

CPI (2-3%) in flat markets; 3-5% in strong growth markets; 5-8% during post-COVID rent spikes (unusual). Check CoStar, Yardi, or RealPage for submarket data — don't make it up.

Why stress rent growth?

2-3% rent error compounded over 7 years swings exit value by 15-25%. It's the single largest source of underwriting error after exit cap.

What about rent controls?

Cities with rent boards (SF, LA, Oakland, NYC, Berkeley, Portland) cap annual increases 3-10%. Model at the cap, not market growth, for controlled units.