Property Tax Appeal Expected Value Calculator

Appeals have expected value. This calculator sizes.

Current assessment

Market value

Tax rate %

Appeal cost

Success probability %

Expected value of appeal

$28,940

Annual savings if win

$19,200

3-year savings if win

$57,600

How the math works

Savings if win = (assessment − market) × rate. EV = 3-year savings × success probability − cost.

$5.2M assessment vs $4.4M market at 2.4% tax: $19,200/yr savings if won. 65% × 3 yr × $19.2k = $37.4k EV. Minus $8.5k cost = +$29k net EV. Clear go-decision.

How to Use

Enter current assessment.
Enter market value.
Enter tax rate %.
Enter appeal cost.
Enter success probability %.
Read expected savings.

Frequently Asked Questions

Success rates?

Clear overassessment (>20% above market): 70-85% success. Moderate (10-20%): 50-70%. Marginal: 20-40%. Appeal professional vs self-file: professional 20-30% higher success. Fees: 30-50% of savings typical.

When to appeal?

Post-reassessment (triggered by sale, new construction). Property value declining. Damage. Vacancy. Changes in market. Annual review recommended on properties >$1M. On $3M+ properties: always professional appraisal comp before accepting assessment.

Process?

File petition with deadline (varies by jurisdiction, often 30-90 days post-assessment notice). Provide market value evidence (appraisal, comps, income). Negotiation with assessor. Hearing if no settlement. Sometimes court appeal. Multi-year process on contested cases.

How often should I rerun this?

Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.