Electrical Overrun Calculator

Electrical overruns cluster around gear and wire. This calculator sizes overrun.

Electrical budget

Switchgear lead time

Transformer premium

Copper escalation %

Labor escalation %

Overrun risk

$497,600

Long-lead risk

$348,500

Material exposure

$73,500

How the math works

Overrun = long-lead risk + material × escalation + labor × escalation.

Release long-lead electrical equipment purchase orders earliest of all trades — typically before foundation starts. Transformers and switchgear can be the critical path items that determine CO date, and their lead times only get worse when ordered late.

How to Use

Enter electrical budget.
Enter switchgear lead time months.
Enter transformer premium.
Enter wire/copper escalation %.
Enter labor escalation %.
Read overrun risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

Transformer shortage?

2022-2024: distribution transformers on 52-104 week lead times. Premium pricing ($5-30k per unit above historic). Utility-owned transformers often controlled by utility — developer can't expedite. Plan transformer order at site plan stage.

Switchgear?

Standard switchgear: 16-26 weeks. Custom (larger commercial): 26-52+ weeks. Most expensive long-lead item on project. Delays here can push CO 3-6 months — worth paying premium for expedited delivery.

Wire?

Copper wire cost doubled 2020-2022. Aluminum wire alternative 30-50% cheaper but requires larger conduit (more pull, more labor). Switch requires engineer review — not simple material swap.

How often should I rerun this?

Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.