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Delinquency Roll Rate Calculator

Roll rates measure what fraction of current accounts age into delinquency each month. Key indicator for credit loss.

Current → 30

3.50%

30 → 60

45.0%

60 → 90

60.0%

How the math works

Roll rate = accounts flowing into next bucket ÷ starting bucket. Tracks transition probabilities.

Roll rates lead losses by 30-60 days. Rising current→30 means losses hit NOI in 2-3 months. React now, not later.

How to Use

  1. Enter accounts current start of month.
  2. Enter accounts rolling to 30-day.
  3. Enter accounts rolling 30→60.
  4. Enter accounts rolling 60→90.
  5. Read roll rates.

Frequently Asked Questions

Typical rates?

Current→30: 2-4% healthy. 30→60: 30-50%. 60→90: 50-70%. Later stages roll faster. Early intervention keeps current→30 below 3%.

Early warning?

Current→30 roll spiking = collection engine weakening or tenant population weakening. Monitor weekly in big portfolios.

Industry benchmarks?

Multifamily: 2-3% current→30. Mid-market commercial: 1-2%. Class C: 4-6%. Roll rate scales with tenant credit — not operations alone.

How does this interact with the rest of the capital stack?

Each tier of the stack affects the next. Senior debt constrains LTC and DSCR. Mezz and pref consume equity spread. Interest rate hedges protect DSCR but cost premium. Always model the full stack holistically — optimizing one tier alone often degrades another. Institutional underwriters run three or four scenarios across the stack before committing capital.

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