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Break-even Occupancy Stress Test Calculator
Break-even occupancy is the occupancy % that just covers opex and debt service. This stress test shows how the break-even rises under rate shock and rent decline so you know how much cushion you have.
Stressed break-even occupancy
92.39%
Base break-even occupancy
75.00%
Points worse under stress
17.39
Stressed GPR
$920,000
How the math works
Break-even occupancy = (opex + debt service) ÷ GPR. Stress adds rate shock and rent decline to show how much thinner the cushion gets.
If stressed break-even exceeds your realistic occupancy ceiling (say 95%), you don't survive the stress — and that's the scenario to plan for.
How to Use
- Enter gross potential rent and opex.
- Enter current debt service.
- Enter rate-shock debt service (higher).
- Enter rent decline %.
- Read base and stressed break-even occupancy.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much cushion is enough?
A 10-point gap between actual occupancy (say 93%) and break-even (say 83%) is comfortable. Under 5 points is dangerous. Under 3 points is distress-flag territory.
When does break-even spike?
Floating-rate debt resetting higher. Insurance doubling. Property tax reassessment. These often happen simultaneously in challenged markets and break-even can jump 10+ points overnight.
Is break-even > 100% possible?
Yes — that means even 100% occupancy doesn't cover debt + opex. The deal is already upside-down. Lenders demand a workout, modification, or sale.
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