Tenant Rollover Concentration Calculator

Concentrated rollover creates binary risk in commercial rent rolls.

Total rent roll / yr

Year 1 rollover rent

Year 2 rollover rent

Year 3 rollover rent

Max single-year concentration

0.3%

3-year rollover %

0.6%

Peak rollover year rent

$3,200,000

How the math works

Max concentration = peak year rent ÷ total. 3-year % = sum ÷ total.

$3.2M peak ÷ $12M = 26.7% year-3 concentration. 3-year cumulative: 61.7% rolls in three years.

How to Use

Enter total annualized rent roll.
Enter year 1 rollover rent.
Enter year 2 rollover rent.
Enter year 3 rollover rent.
Read concentration risk metrics.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is rollover concentration?

Rollover concentration is the % of rent roll expiring in any single year. In commercial (office, retail, industrial), lease terms are typically 5-10 years and large tenants can concentrate 10-30% of rent roll into a single year. High concentration = high binary risk. If 25% of rent rolls in year 3 and the market is soft, you could face a 20%+ rent roll hit in one year. LPs and lenders require rollover-concentration tables in all acquisition diligence.

How do lenders view this?

Lenders underwrite DSCR assuming worst-case rollover loss. Commercial lenders typically require: (1) no single tenant >30% of rent roll (and below 20% for best terms), (2) no single-year rollover >25%, (3) lease tail extending past loan maturity for top tenants. High rollover concentration forces higher equity contribution and lower loan proceeds — often $2-5M reduction on a $50M loan.

How do you mitigate concentration?

Stagger new leases at different terms (5 + 7 + 10 year ladder). Early renewal negotiations 12-18 months before expiration (offer blend-and-extend to anchor tenants). TI allowance + rent step-up in exchange for extended term. Subordination, non-disturbance, and attornment (SNDA) agreements to stabilize lender comfort. Build to 5-10 year staggered rollover by structure — don't hope it averages out.

Retail vs office vs industrial?

Retail: anchor tenant concentration risk is massive. A grocery anchor leaving can kill the center. Target: <40% from top 1 tenant. Office: multi-tenant mid-rise handles 15-25% top tenant. Single-tenant office is a bond substitute — lease/tenant is the asset, not the building. Industrial: often single-tenant, different risk frame — asset value drives residuals, not re-leasing.