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STR Regulation Risk Calculator
STR regulations evolving rapidly; plan for restriction scenarios.
Risk-adjusted value
$114,000
Revenue at risk
$24,000
LTR fallback value
$60,000
How the math works
Risk-adjusted = normal × (1-prob) + restricted × prob. Restricted = LTR + partial STR after buyout.
$120k × 75% + ($60k + $60k × 0.6) × 25% = $90k + $24k = $114k risk-adjusted value.
How to Use
- Enter STR revenue.
- Enter LTR alternative revenue.
- Enter regulation risk probability %.
- Enter STR buyout factor.
- Read risk-adjusted value.
Frequently Asked Questions
Major regulation types?
Outright ban (NYC 2023). Permit/license required (many cities). Primary residence requirement (SF). Night cap per year (30-180 nights). Commercial zone restriction. Each affects revenue differently.
Active restrictions?
NYC: effective ban on non-hosted STR 2023. SF: 90-day cap, primary residence. Santa Monica: 30-day primary residence. Austin, Nashville: licensing + noise. Honolulu: multi-family ban. Trend toward restriction.
Mitigation?
Monitor city ordinances monthly. Diversify geographically. Mix LTR and STR in portfolio. Use mid-term rentals (30+ days exempt from most STR rules). Keep STR permits current. Insurance with regulation coverage (limited).
How often should I rerun this?
Rerun this calculator whenever inputs change materially — new rent roll data, rate moves, loan balance updates, or quarterly operating data. For active deals, monthly refresh is typical. For stabilized assets under monitoring, quarterly is fine. Treat the output as a decision tool, not a one-time answer — market conditions evolve and so should your analysis.
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