Maturity Default Risk Calculator

Bridge and short-term loans face maturity default risk when the takeout refi doesn't fully cover payoff. This calculator sizes the gap and risk.

Current loan balance at maturity

Property value at maturity

Refi LTV cap

Projected NOI

New rate (refi)

DSCR target

Amortization (years)

Refi gap

$775,000

positive = gap to close

LTV-constrained refi loan

$4,225,000

DSCR-constrained refi loan

$4,290,529

Available refi proceeds

$4,225,000

How the math works

Refi proceeds = min(LTV loan, DSCR loan). The binding constraint varies. Rising rates push DSCR loan down; falling values push LTV loan down. Both rising = double trouble.

Early stress-testing is the cheapest risk management. 18 months before maturity, run this calculator at +100bps rate and 10% value decline — the gap you see is what you need to plan for.

How to Use

Enter current loan balance.
Enter property value at maturity.
Enter refi LTV cap.
Enter DSCR target at new rate.
Enter projected NOI and new rate.
Read refi proceeds, gap, and risk level.

Frequently Asked Questions

What triggers maturity default?

Rising rates cut refi proceeds (lower DSCR-constrained loan). Falling values cut LTV-constrained loan. Weak NOI cuts both. All three together = extinction-level event for overlevered deals.

How to hedge?

Interest rate cap on floating debt, forward rate lock on refi, extension options, and preferred-equity line to bridge gap. Best defense: underwrite takeout at stressed assumptions upfront.

What if there's a gap?

Preferred equity, mezzanine, capital call from LPs, asset sale, or DPO with existing lender. Planning 12-18 months ahead of maturity is key — panic solutions cost dearly.